Niall Ferguson (Glasgow, 1964), provocative and media, is one of the most influential historians of the moment especially in conservative areas.In his last book, disaster: history and politics of catastrophes (debate), he reflects on the consequences of the pandemic and concludes that if the covid became a calamity it was not because of the virus itself, but for the managementpolitics.However, in his opinion, pandemics are only one more than the long list of risks facing humanity and in which climate change is not even the most urgent.Ferguson sees, on the other hand, more pressing the danger of a war between China and the United States, possibly by Taiwan.

You affirm that there is no distinction between the origins of natural catastrophes and those caused by man.It is a shocking idea.

That idea is not entirely mine.Amartya Sen, the Indian economist, said many years ago that famines were not natural disasters, but are caused by a bad policy, and I add that this is also true in general with all catastrophes.That is, catastrophes cause large levels of mortality if political mistakes are made.

Catastrophes cause large levels of mortality if political mistakes are made "

I will illustrate it in two ways.First, in the Covid 19 Pandemia, the same virus attacked Taiwan, Korea, Spain and the United States, but the results were totally different in each of these countries.In Taiwan or South Korea there was not so much mortality, while the US and Spain was very high.The second is the case of volcanoes, which when erupting only causes a large human catastrophe if there are many houses or a city in their skirt, because if it is a desert island there will be no human disaster.

You can also compare a pandemic and war.Although we believe that they are different catastrophes, since one is considered caused by man and the other not, deep down they are not so different.

Is the disaster management and not the disaster itself?

Effectively.There were different ways of managing Covid pandemia: a good one, which was isolation, quarantines, tests and protect vulnerable populations, which was the strategy of some countries, such as Taiwan;And another, which adopted part of the western countries and that led to a series of errors, the most important of which was not to act on time.In January, February and March there were many in London and Washington who were asking for measures and politicians, officials and public health experts simply delayed them until it was too late.

If everyone had had great mortality rates we could conclude that it could not have been better, but there are countries that did not have such high levels.Instead, most countries, both democracies and totalitarian regimes, did it wrong.

That is, good action does not depend on a political or other regime, there is no pattern.

No, there are no simple patterns.At first, they wanted to give geographical, climatic or even genetic explanations to explain the different results, but none worked.What had to have done was to understand what were the specific characteristics of this disease.

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He has mentioned the Hong Kong flu.It is surprising that no one remembers epidemics that comparatively had an impact similar to COVID, but that, instead, the current one has an impact with few precedents.Why does this happen?

The response is very clear.Hong Kong flu had few consequences because schools were not closed and there was no confinement.Instead, COVID has had enormous economic repercussions for closures and quarantines;Therefore, they are the economic consequences of pandemia that really makes it impact, economic consequences that are very similar to those of a conflict such as World War II, where there was a great fall in GDP.

On the other hand, in other pandemics there were no political consequences, but now: precisely one of the reasons why Trump was not re -elected I think it was pandemic.And in geopolitical terms, COVID has had huge consequences.It is like a second cold war, so to speak - now between the United States and China - that in a way it looks a lot like the first.

Applied history is a fundamental instrument for those who make decisions "

For all this, I think that Covid 19 will not forget how the 1918-19 flu epidemic has been forgotten.Or as AIDS has forgotten, which has killed ten times more people than Covid, but that people no longer speak and that they have only ended in the developed world, although in poor countries it remains a disease that causes very little deaths.

The Covid has had a great geopolitical impact.A cold war USA.-China is the catastrophe that in the future can we fear?

Yes, because any cold war can become a hot war.When the cold war began, suddenly it became a hot war in Korea that could almost become nuclear, as Douglas MacArthur intended.There is currently a great danger of climbing by Taiwan, and that would be a terribly deadly war, but people have forgotten what a large -scale war is because we are only accustomed to small war conflicts.I am not so worried about a cold war in itself, but begins to acquire conventional war characteristics, and this can be given to Korea or Taiwan, but also in other parts of the world as parts of South America and sub -Saharan Africa, among others.

What would have to happen to pass from a cold war to a hot war?

A calculation error can lead to war.If the Chinese government thinks that it is better for the communist party that Taiwan is under the Beijing regime and the United States does not fight to prevent the outcome would be one, but if the United States thinks that we have to avoid it we can reach a war.When I look at the relationship between these two countries I think that the error may be that one part or another calculate the predisposition that the other has to enter a real war.

The two world wars began with a calculation error.It happened in 1914, when the German army entered Belgium, and in 1939 when Hitler entered Poland.Obviously in the case at hand there are many different ways that things climb.It may not be Taiwan, it may be the southern China Sea or for other reasons such as the problem of Korea, which has not disappeared.But I think Taiwan may be the most problematic and at least it is what the United States is focusing.

The two world wars began with a calculation error "

In the First Cold War there were very difficult times, such as the crisis of the missiles of Cuba, and this time we must prevent Taiwan from becoming a similar crisis.

He has alluded to World War.In the book he says that catastrophes are unpredictable, but instead there are moments like 1914 in which everyone could see her coming.Isn't it contradictory?

Yes, it is a contradiction of the human condition.There is crisis that are like what I call gray rhinos that come towards us through the plain.Pandemia is one of them, because there were many people who predicted it over the last 20 years but at the moment of truth he surprised everyone.That happened in 1914.

Taiwan, the most dangerous place on the planet

Are there more immediate risks than climate change?

In January 2020, the World Economic Forum said that the main world risks were related to climate change and I don't think pandemic appeared among them.I think that climate change is one of those who has to worry us, but it would be a mistake to think that it is the most dangerous and ignore others.

If we imagine those gray rhinos we talked about before and approach us, we will see that we run a great risk.But climate change moves very slowly while there are other rhinos that do it faster and also constitute huge threats, such as a great armed conflict, a cyber attack that produces a total fall in communications or other pandemic, and evenThe problems that COVID can generate in the short term.

There are other threats in addition to climate change, such as a great armed conflict, a great cyber attack or other pandemic "

What is the problem?Well, climate change absorbs us a lot, it is a very attractive and interesting topic of conversation.There is a whole narrative linked to this, linked to the end of the world, which is unconsciously very attractive.I think we make an error, because climate change is not necessarily something that will cause the death of many people, although it will cause more mass migrations.

And we also have technological solutions to face the problem, to reduce greenhouse gases.We are focusing on renewable energies, but we must bear in mind that they also depend on a series of variables, for example of the wind or other series of things.That is, we are adopting policies that are in the short term and that will not affect the important reforms that we have to adopt more in the long term.

British Empire Nostalgia

These issues do not invite precisely to optimism.If I had to give an optimistic message, what would it be?

In fact, I am optimistic because the end of the world is not something we have to worry about.It will happen, obviously, but much is missing.Most of the problems we have can be solved through technological and administrative means, and in reality there are easier problems than to solve than those in the mid -twentieth century.Let's think for example of medical and technological advances.

We also have the ability to produce an energy or a mixture of more green energies, there are already alternatives, but at the same time we have to be pragmatic.

In fact, I am optimistic because the end of the world is not something we have to worry about.It will happen, obviously, but much is missing "

And then there is education.You have to educate new generations well and this does not happen in many countries, including the poorest layers of society in the United States.I think we have to maintain a rational debate and get out of ideological confusion, because we have the necessary means to counteract all these crises.

My book is optimistic and says that the end of the world is far away, but also defends that we have to learn from history to be able to manage the problems we have now.Learning from history is much easier than quantum physics or nuclear physics and I hope politicians can do it.

Where does a new cold war have?